UFC 258: Usman vs Burns Picks and Predictions

First UFC event in a few weeks. The headliner is an interesting fight that I have no interest in betting on. Usman is a sizeable favorite but aside from Colby Covington it seems like Gilbert Burns is the perfect foil to Usman. They've trained together for years and Burns has displayed knock out power and has world class grappling as a Jiu Jitsu world champion. Despite this, Burns has been held against the cage by Woodley and out scrambled by Demian Maia who Usman thoroughly dominated in similar positions. The two fighters' past relationship and high skill level should make for an interesting fight. With that, let's get to my bets for UFC 258.

Ian Heinisch vs Kelvin Gastelum

This middleweight tilt comes with some major implications. Heinisch is coming off a win against Gerald Meerschaert and Kelvin lost his last three. If Ian wins it’s likely he competes against a top five middleweight and Kelvin in all likelihood is fighting for his job. What’s saddening about this is Gastelum has some of the best head movement and boxing in the entire UFC. Look no further than his fight against Israel Adesanya for an example of abilities. While he lost his last three you really need to look at the quality of his opponents. He lost to Adesanya (champion), Till (beast), and Hermansson (beast). Ian Heinisch is a massive step down in competition and Gastelum should be able to take him rather handily.

Gastelum: -230

Belal Muhammad vs Dhiego Lima

This is a fight that doesn't make me very enthused, which is both a good thing and bad thing. Good thing because it's easy money and bad thing because I don't really see this being a very fun fight to watch. Belal Muhammad has a very aggressive style of grappling with relentless pressure. He doesn't get the finish much, he just lays on top of people and wins rounds. I always root for Dhiego because he lost the Ultimate Fighter to someone who tested positive for steroids but I don't see him having any answer to Muhammad's punishing grappling. Belal Muhammad by snoozefest.

Muhammad: -470

Bobby Green vs Jim Miller

The UFC blessed us with a banger on an otherwise stale card. Green and Miller are two division veterans that come to bang. Odds makers have Jim Miller as a considerable dog and I can see why. Green is a much better boxer and has great scrambles but that comes with a caveat. Bobby Green reminds me of Jorge Masvidal before he went on that Spanish game show and lived on an island for a few months. Great strikers, incredibly comfortable and fluid in the octagon, but too comfortable. Green, like Mas pre-2017 at times coasts and it has costed him. Jim Miller is a tough outing for anybody in the UFC and has great grappling. Fortunately for the New Jersey native, he is now free of Lyme disease! This is something that has gone completely under the radar and has affected him for years. I see Jim Miller coming out ready to bang and beating Green either by some submission or a decision.

Miller: +255